Monthly Outlook

Throughout the next three to four weeks, temperatures are most likely to stay above average with some hot days expected, especially in central, southern and eastern regions. There will be a lot of dry weather, with occasional rain mostly affecting northern areas.

Later in July, it should become wetter more widely, with thundery outbreaks, as well as less warm.

High pressure will dominate. Hot in the south

Through the middle of the week high pressure will build northwards across the UK, leading to mostly dry conditions. Much of England and Wales should see plenty of sunshine during Wednesday and Thursday but the north of England, western Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland will see more cloud at times. Occasional drizzle or light rain is possible mainly in western Scotland.

On Friday patchy rain will become more probable across Northern Ireland and Scotland with showery outbreaks perhaps developing across northern parts of Wales and England, and a thunderstorm is possible. Away from the cloudier areas, temperatures will be above the July average, and parts of central, southern and eastern England will be hot, reaching the low to md-30s Celsius from Wednesday to Friday.

The weekend should see high pressure settling farther north, and it will become breezy, especially in southern and eastern regions and particularly on Sunday. Temperatures should ease a little but remain above or well above average. It will be largely dry but Scotland and Northern Ireland could have a sharp shower here and there.

Warmer than average. Thunderstorms later

The outlook through and beyond mid-July has become a little clearer, with longer-range models showing reasonable agreement on the expected broad pressure pattern. High pressure should remain centred across the northern UK through the first half of the week, with rather calm conditions across Scotland but occasionally breezy weather farther south. Temperatures will stay above average, and well above in the southern UK with temperatures again exceeding 30C in places.

The second half of the week is more uncertain, but high pressure will most likely edge farther north, and that should allow low pressure and an unsettled air mass to creep in from the south by the weekend. This should mean that widespread and locally heavy showers will move into at least southern England and Wales. There will also be scattered thunderstorms. As time goes by this weather could spread farther north but the northward extend is uncertain. Scotland and Northern Ireland have the greatest chance of staying dry.

Changeable and becoming less warm

From later July into the start of August, the pressure pattern signals are less clear but low pressure may make more of an appearance. Conditions could be unsettled quite widely at the start of this period, with rain or showers and scattered thunderstorms across much of the country, and it should become less warm. Overall though temperatures are more likely to be above or at least near average rather than below. Scotland is more likely to be near normal, and southern England most probably above.

High pressure should eventually settle farther south, with Atlantic low pressure and frontal systems bringing occasionally wetter weather to at least northern areas of the UK. It should be less wet the farther south and east you are, but it is unlikely to be persistently dry, with chances of local showers or thunderstorms, although total rainfall amounts should be near to below average.

In Friday's outlook we will reassess the potential thundery breakdown to the hot weather, and also take a look further into August.