meta:

validation_n: 2000

default_seed: 42

notes: 'neu_york rubric: leakage-free gpt-4o (Oct-2023 cutoff) backtest of certified 2024 New York City

(five boroughs: New York, Kings, Queens, Bronx, Richmond counties) results (presidential two-party

+ ballot measures, web-verified against two independent sources) + direction-only counterfactuals.

Targets are frozen certified ground truth; only persona/prompt/aggregation may be tuned.'

weights:

elections_measures: 1.0

resolved_markets_sf_informative: 0.0

resolved_markets_general: 0.0

live_markets: 0.0

counterfactuals: 1.0

thresholds:

weighted_score_min: 0.7

elections_measures_max_abs_err: 0.07

resolved_markets_max_brier: 0.18

counterfactual_direction_min: 0.8

elections_measures:

- id: nyc_president_2024_two_party_dem_share

as_of_date: '2024-11-04'

model: gpt-4o

population: cvap_likely_voter

question: Of votes cast for the two major-party presidential candidates in New York City, what share

went to Kamala Harris (Democratic) rather than Donald Trump (Republican)?

description: 'On Nov 5, 2024, NYC voters chose between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald

Trump. Heading into the election, NYC was a Democratic stronghold (Biden took ~76% in 2020), but cost-of-living

strain, the migrant/asylum-seeker influx straining city shelters, and discontent in immigrant and

outer-borough neighborhoods set up a notable Republican shift. Harris carried all boroughs except

Staten Island (Richmond County), which Trump won. This value is the certified two-party Democratic

share across all five boroughs: Harris 1,903,344 vs Trump 838,838. By county the Democratic two-party

share was roughly Manhattan 0.824, Bronx 0.727, Brooklyn 0.720, Queens 0.623, Staten Island 0.351.'

target_share: 0.6941

tolerance: 0.05

- id: ny_prop_1_2024_equal_rights_amendment

as_of_date: '2024-11-04'

model: gpt-4o

population: cvap_likely_voter

question: Shall the New York Constitution's equal-protection clause be amended to also bar discrimination

based on ethnicity, national origin, age, disability, and sex - including sexual orientation, gender

identity, gender expression, pregnancy, pregnancy outcomes, and reproductive healthcare and autonomy?

description: 'Proposal 1 was New York''s statewide ''Equal Rights Amendment,'' widely understood as

enshrining abortion and reproductive-rights protections in the state constitution after the 2022 Dobbs

decision overturned Roe v. Wade. Backers (Hochul, most Democrats, reproductive-rights groups) framed

it as locking in abortion access and broad anti-discrimination protections; opponents argued the language

was vague and could affect parental rights and youth gender care. A YES vote adds these protections

to the constitution. This figure is the YES share among Yes/No votes aggregated across the five NYC

boroughs (certified): Yes 1,911,474, No 535,474. By borough the YES share was roughly Manhattan 0.860,

Bronx 0.833, Brooklyn 0.792, Queens 0.748, Staten Island 0.506.'

target_share: 0.7812

tolerance: 0.06

- id: nyc_prop_2_2024_sanitation_cleanliness

as_of_date: '2024-11-04'

model: gpt-4o

population: cvap_likely_voter

question: Shall the City Charter be amended to expand and clarify the Department of Sanitation's power

to clean streets and other city property and to require that trash be set out in containers, including

authority over parks, medians, and street vendors?

description: Proposal 2 came from Mayor Eric Adams' Charter Revision Commission and tied into his high-profile

'war on rats' and trash-containerization push (mandatory wheelie-bin rules were rolling out across

the city in 2024). It would let the Department of Sanitation clean more city property, regulate how

residents and businesses set out garbage, and hold street vendors accountable. Supporters cast it

as cleaner streets and fewer rats; critics, including street-vendor advocates, warned of heavier enforcement

against vendors. A YES vote adopts the amendment. Value is the certified citywide YES share (NYC-only

measure, so the citywide figure is the five-county aggregate).

target_share: 0.6174

tolerance: 0.08

- id: nyc_prop_4_2024_public_safety_notice

as_of_date: '2024-11-04'

model: gpt-4o

population: cvap_likely_voter

question: Shall the City Charter be amended to require additional public notice and time, including

a public hearing and notice to the Mayor, before the City Council votes on local laws affecting the

public-safety operations of the NYPD, FDNY, or Department of Correction?

description: Proposal 4 was one of several Adams-commission measures seen as a response to the Council's

recent veto-overriding public-safety bills (such as the NYPD stop-and-frisk reporting 'How Many Stops

Act' and a solitary-confinement ban passed over the mayor's veto in early 2024). It would add public-notice

and hearing requirements before the Council passes laws touching police, fire, or corrections operations.

Supporters framed it as transparency; critics, including many Council members, called it a mayoral

'power grab' that slows police oversight. A YES vote adopts the amendment. Value is the certified

citywide YES share (NYC-only measure = five-county aggregate).

target_share: 0.5707

tolerance: 0.08

- id: nyc_prop_5_2024_capital_planning

as_of_date: '2024-11-04'

model: gpt-4o

population: cvap_likely_voter

question: Shall the City Charter be amended to require more regular assessment of the condition and

maintenance needs of city facilities and to require that those needs inform the city's capital planning?

description: Proposal 5, also from the Adams Charter Revision Commission, would require the city to

annually assess the state of its buildings, bridges, and other facilities and feed that into long-term

capital budgeting, aiming to reduce deferred maintenance. It was the least controversial of the commission's

measures, presented as good-government infrastructure planning. A YES vote adopts the amendment. Value

is the certified citywide YES share (NYC-only measure = five-county aggregate).

target_share: 0.5777

tolerance: 0.08

- id: nyc_prop_6_2024_mwbe_film_permits

as_of_date: '2024-11-04'

model: gpt-4o

population: cvap_likely_voter

question: Shall the City Charter be amended to create a Chief Business Diversity Officer to support

Minority- and Women-Owned Business Enterprises and to authorize the Mayor to designate the office

that issues film permits?

description: Proposal 6 was the only one of the five Adams-commission charter measures that voters rejected.

It would have created a citywide Chief Business Diversity Officer to help Minority- and Women-Owned

Business Enterprises (M/WBEs) win city contracts and let the Mayor pick which office issues film/TV

production permits. Critics found it confusing or saw it as further centralizing power under the mayor,

and it narrowly failed. A YES vote would have adopted the amendment; it did NOT pass. Value is the

certified citywide YES share (NYC-only measure = five-county aggregate).

target_share: 0.4736

tolerance: 0.08

resolved_markets:

sf_opinion_informative: []

general_knowledge: []

counterfactuals:

- id: cf_subway_crime_surge

as_of_date: '2023-06-01'

model: gpt-4o

framing: vote

population: cvap_likely_voter

question: Would support for tougher policing and increased police presence in the subway rise after

a widely covered violent crime on the system?

description: Would support for tougher policing and increased police presence in the subway rise after

a widely covered violent crime on the system?

event: A high-profile violent assault or shooting in the subway dominates local news for a week.

expected_direction: up

- id: cf_rent_stabilization_repeal

as_of_date: '2023-06-01'

model: gpt-4o

framing: vote

population: cvap_likely_voter

question: Would support for a candidate fall among the city's large renter majority if that candidate

proposed weakening rent-stabilization protections?

description: Would support for a candidate fall among the city's large renter majority if that candidate

proposed weakening rent-stabilization protections?

event: A mayoral candidate publicly proposes rolling back rent-stabilization rules to encourage new

development.

expected_direction: down